The U.S. election: Israeli preferences and expectations

Historical material. Dates, proposals and invitations refer to the time of the original publication.

To what extent do you follow the U.S. election campaign? (%)

2/3 of Israelis express a strong interest in the U.S. election campaign, but only 16% follow developments regularly. The religious part of the population follows events significantly less frequently than other groups.

Interest in this topic does not correlate with educational level or country of birth and correlates only slightly with higher income. Jewish respondents are much more likely to follow the topic than Arab respondents: over 70% of the former follow events regularly or occasionally, compared with 50% of the latter.

To what extent do you follow the U.S. election campaign? (%) / Education, income, country of birth and nationality.

To what extent do you follow the U.S. election campaign? (%) / Religiosity

Unless otherwise specified, indices are calculated as the difference between the sums of positive and negative responses of varying intensity. This identifies which responses predominate and permits comparisons across groups. The possible index range is -100 to +100 index points.

Respondents who prefer a victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris follow the U.S. presidential election more frequently (27.1% versus 17.9% among those preferring Donald Trump), as do participants in mass demonstrations.

To what extent do you follow the U.S. election campaign? (%) / Preferred candidate and participation in mass demonstrations

As expected, respondents who do not engage in socially significant activities are less likely to report regularly following the U.S. election campaign (10.6%, compared with 25–40.2% among members of organizations or volunteers). Political organization members follow these events most actively, followed by civic organization members, with religious community members and volunteers following in comparable proportions.

To what extent do you follow the U.S. election campaign? (%) / Social activity

To what extent, in your opinion, does the situation in the following areas in Israel depend on relations with the United States?

Interest in these events reflects the role of the United States in Israeli life.

Most Israelis see their country’s international standing and influence on global processes as the areas most dependent on the United States, followed, in descending order, by international economic cooperation and national security.

Relations with the United States

Areas respondents see as dependent on the United States

−1000+100

Economic stability	+48.2 index pts
Domestic politics	+1.7 index pts
National security	+68.6 index pts
International standing and influence	+70.2 index pts
Foreign policy	+65.4 index pts
International economic cooperation	+68.7 index pts

Original chart

Some agreement between secular Israelis and those with varying degrees of religiosity — traditional and Haredi — on the dependence or independence of different aspects of Israeli life is found only in domestic politics.

This is the only area that Israelis tend to regard as relatively independent of the United States, as indicated by dependency indices close to zero or below zero.

In all other areas there is a general pattern: secular Israelis perceive greater dependence on the United States, traditional respondents somewhat less, and religious respondents report the lowest levels of dependence.

Differences between groups: the author’s index

Domestic politics: Jewish and Arab respondents

The English research section reports differences between Jewish and Arab respondents primarily in domestic politics: Arab respondents more often view this area as dependent on the United States and less often as independent.

Nearly 60% of respondents believe a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump would be preferable for Israel, whereas the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is preferred by only 15% of respondents.

Preference profiles differ by religiosity. Harris’s share should be compared across groups without mistaking that difference for a lead within each group.

• secular Israelis are much more likely to express a preference for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, whereas
• religious Israelis favor Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Preference for Trump increases from secular to traditional and then to religious Israelis. Conversely, the share preferring Kamala Harris is highest among secular respondents, slightly lower among traditional respondents and lowest among religious respondents.

Which prospective U.S. president, in your opinion, would be preferable for Israel? (%)

How do you think the election of each of the following U.S. presidential candidates would affect resolution of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict? (%)

Expectations of conflict resolution

Expected effect on resolving the conflict

−1000+100

Donald Trump	+46.8 index pts
Kamala Harris	-24.5 index pts

Original chart

As the charts show, in the context of resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict , traditional and religious respondents are considerably more likely to choose “positive” and “very positive” when assessing Trump’s role if he wins (approximately 44% in each of these groups choose “very positive”, compared with 26% of secular Israelis).

Secular Israelis, in contrast, more frequently choose “rather negative” (16.1 versus an average of 6% in the other groups) and “very negative” (6% versus 2–4%, respectively). Compared with traditional and religious respondents, secular respondents are more likely to expect a very or rather positive role for Kamala Harris in resolving the conflict if she is elected president.

How would the election of each of the following U.S. presidential candidates affect resolution of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict? % / By religiosity

Israelis generally associate the development of Israel’s relations with BRICS with a Donald Trump victory in the presidential election.

However, secular respondents are also more likely than traditional and religious respondents to expect Kamala Harris to have a positive effect on Israel’s relations with BRICS, and less likely to expect the same from Donald Trump.

Expected effects on relations with BRICS

−1000+100

Secular · Donald Trump	+20.1 index pts
Secular · Kamala Harris	+1.9 index pts
Traditional · Donald Trump	+54.3 index pts
Traditional · Kamala Harris	-24.2 index pts
Religious · Donald Trump	+51.9 index pts
Religious · Kamala Harris	-36.8 index pts

Original chart

Asked which model of a postwar order each U.S. presidential candidate would prefer, respondents show an unusually strong consensus concerning Kamala Harris and her perceived preference for “two states for two peoples”: 59% of respondents selected this answer.

For comparison, among the other answers concerning both candidates, the largest figure is 25.7% for “don’t know” regarding Donald Trump’s position.

Respondents most often expect Donald Trump to favor “annexation of territories” (23.9%).

In general, expectations regarding Kamala Harris’s preferred model of Israel’s postwar order are almost identical across groups defined by religiosity, unlike expectations concerning Donald Trump’s preferred model.

Two opposing trends are apparent here. . As religiosity decreases from religious to secular respondents, the share attributing to him a preference for “two states for two peoples” rises from 15.1% to 24%, while the share choosing “annexation of territories” falls from 27.6% to 19.6%.

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