Results of the sociological survey
The study “Israel and Hamas: War and World” was conducted through an internet survey among 1,007 respondents, Israelis, internet users aged 18 years and older. The survey was conducted in the first week of February 2024. The maximum statistical sampling error is 4.0% at a 95% confidence level. The survey was conducted by the sociological center “Geocartography” according to the questionnaire provided by the analytical center of the NGO “Dor Moria.
In your opinion, what should Israel’s policy be towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after the end of the war with Hamas?
| Annexation of the territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip with the expulsion of Palestinians to Arab countries | 28% |
| Implementation of the “two-state solution” policy | 23% |
| Continuation of the existing policy prior to the war | 11% |
| Annexation of the territories of Judea and Samaria, as well as the Gaza Strip without expelling Palestinians | 6% |
| Establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories of the Palestinian Authority | 5% |
| Implementation of the “one-state solution” policy | 5% |
| Other | 5% |
| Don’t know | 17% |
The largest share of respondents (28%) supports the idea of annexing the territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip, with the expulsion of Palestinians to Arab countries. 23% of respondents advocate for the “two-state solution,” while 11% would prefer to continue the current policy before the war. The proportion of those who would prefer the establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories of the Palestinian Authority is only 5%. However, there is a high level of uncertainty, with 17% of respondents finding it difficult to give an answer to this question.
Moreover, the older the respondent, the more likely they are to insist on implementing the “two-state solution” policy, while the younger respondents are more inclined towards annexing the territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip and deporting Palestinians to Arab countries.
| The strategy of Israel /Age (years) | 18-35 | 36-55 | 56+ |
| Annexation of the territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip with the expulsion of Palestinians to Arab countries | 33,8% | 25,4% | 19,3% |
| Implementation of the “two-state solution” policy | 15,9% | 27,2% | 30,7% |
| Continuation of the existing policy prior to the war | 11,9% | 7,9% | 12,5% |
| Annexation of the territories of Judea and Samaria, as well as the Gaza Strip without expelling Palestinians | 5,3% | 6,9% | 8,5% |
| Establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories of the Palestinian Authority | 3,8% | 7,1% | 6,3% |
| Implementation of the “one-state solution” policy | 5,7% | 4,8% | 2,8% |
| Other | 6,0% | 4,0% | 3,4% |
| Don’t know | 17,7% | 16,7% | 16,5% |
As expected, there is a huge difference in responses to this question between the Arab and Jewish populations of Israel. Nearly half of the Arab population (49%) most often chooses the political strategy of “Two states for two peoples” (with only 1.5% to 10% choosing another strategy from their number), while among the Jewish population, such responses are three times fewer (16.2%). The Jewish population tends to favor the idea of “Annexation of the territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip and the deportation of Palestinians to Arab countries” (34%), whereas less than 5% of the Arab population supports it.
It should be noted that among the Arab population, the level of “consensus” in responses is significantly higher than among the Jewish population.
Religious Israelis (Orthodox and traditional) are most supportive of the political strategy of “Annexation of the territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip and the deportation of Palestinians to Arab countries” (42-43% compared to 24.5% secular), while secular Israelis are most oriented towards the implementation of the “Two states for two peoples” policy (26.1% compared to 5-9% of religious Israelis).
| Secularity-Religiosity | Population of Israel | Strategy after the war | |||
| Secular | Traditional | Orthodox | Jewish | Arab | |
| 24,5% | 41,9% | 42,4% | 34,0% | 4,5% | Annexation of the territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip with the expulsion of Palestinians to Arab countries |
| 26,1% | 9,0% | 5,3% | 16,2% | 49,0% | Implementation of the “two-state solution” policy |
| 10,3% | 14,3% | 10,6% | 11,8% | 5,5% | Continuation of the existing policy prior to the war |
| 4,5% | 9,0% | 13,2% | 7,7% | 1,5% | Annexation of the territories of Judea and Samaria, as well as the Gaza Strip without expelling Palestinians |
| 8,7% | 4,7% | 0,7% | 5,8% | 4,0% | Establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories of the Palestinian Authority |
| 3,2% | 3,9% | 4,0% | 3,6% | 10,0% | Implementation of the “one-state solution” policy |
| 5,5% | 5,7% | 6,0% | 5,7% | 1,0% | Don’t know |
How do you think the opinions of these countries towards Israel will change after the war with Hamas?
| Will improve | Will worsen | Will not change | Don’t know | I[1] | |
| United States | 36% | 14% | 40% | 11% | 22 |
| European Union | 22% | 29% | 35% | 14% | -7 |
| China | 7% | 39% | 35% | 19% | -32 |
| Russia | 5% | 50% | 32% | 13% | -45 |
| BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) | 7% | 44% | 30% | 18% | -37 |
| Abraham Accords participant countries (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan) | 19% | 30% | 37% | 14% | -9 |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Results of responses to this question show that Israelis have the most optimistic expectations regarding the United States. They more often than others say that this country’s attitude toward Israel will change for the better, less often – that it will change for the worse, and more often than others are convinced of the stability of the US-Israel relationship.
The index of the possibility of changes in relations, calculated as the difference between positive and negative responses, has negative values for all countries except the US, which means that Israelis predominantly have negative expectations regarding changes in the attitudes of the international community towards Israel.
Concerns about deteriorating relations with Israel after the war with Hamas are most pronounced among Israelis, primarily towards Russia, but also towards China and the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). These same countries have the lowest values of responses regarding the possibility of improving their relationship with Israel.
[1] index is calculated as the difference between positive and negative responses.
In your opinion, which policies will have the greatest impact on the Middle East after the war with Hamas?
The majority of respondents believe that the most influential politician in the Middle East after the war with Hamas will be Joe Biden (41%). It is worth noting that our previous research shows that he currently holds a similar status. Following him, with a significant margin, are Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Benjamin Netanyahu. 31% of respondents voted for Donald Trump, while 26% each voted for Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud takes fifth place, with the support of 23% of the votes. Approximately the same proportion of respondents found it difficult to answer this question, indicating a significant level of uncertainty in the situation.
Respondents associate the lowest leadership prospects with Emmanuel Macron and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In your opinion, do conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen influence the nature of military actions by the Israeli army in its fight against Hamas?
| On average | Jewish population | Arab population | ||
| Have a significant influence | 10% | 38% | 9,7% | 12,0% |
| Have some influence | 28% | 29,0% | 21,5% | |
| Have little influence | 32% | 45% | 34,8% | 18,5% |
| Do not influence at all | 13% | 12,8% | 13,0% | |
| Don’t know | 18% | 13,8% | 35,0% | |
| Total | 100% | 100,0% | 100,0% |
Respondents are slightly more inclined to the opinion that the specified conflicts do not influence the course of military actions of the Israeli army – answers about the lack of influence of conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen on the nature of military actions of the Israeli army in the fight against Hamas slightly prevail over the opposite answers. Thus, in total, 38% of respondents are convinced that such influence exists in one way or another, while in varying degrees deny it, totaling 45% of respondents.
The Jewish population is more inclined to the opinion that conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen influence the military actions of the Israeli army in the fight against Hamas. 38.7% of the Jewish population believe that the influence of these conflicts on the military actions of the Israeli army is quite or very significant. Meanwhile, only 33.5% of the Arab population draw such conclusions. Among the Arab population, more people are inclined to believe that conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen do not affect the military actions of the Israeli army. 31.5% of the Arab population believe that the influence of these conflicts on the military actions of the Israeli army is not so great or completely absent, compared to 24.1% of the Jewish population.
As age increases, the proportion of respondents claiming that these conflicts influence the military actions of the Israeli army decreases, and conversely, the proportion of responses about such influence increases as the age of the respondents decreases.
In your opinion, how do you think the influence of conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen manifests in the nature of military actions by the Israeli army in the fight against Hamas? (among those who answered positively to the previous question)
| They divert budgets of economic and military aid from the USA to Israel | 40% |
| They divert the world’s attention from Israel’s war with Hamas | 28% |
| Due to military conflicts in Ukraine and Yemen, the international community is less critical and aggressive and more tolerant of Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip | 18% |
| Other | 14% |
| Total | 100% |
Based on the survey results, the majority of respondents believe that the responsibility
for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of Gaza after the war and the
elimination of Hamas should lie with the League of Arab States (35%), as well
as the United Nations (24%). Russia and China were mentioned the least in this
regard (5% and 2% respectively).There is a two-fold difference in the positions of representatives of the Arab and Jewish sectors on three answer options.
Representatives of the Arab sector significantly more often prefer the League
of Arab States, the European Union, and Russia in the question of
responsibility for Gaza’s reconstruction. Overall, they would prefer to assign
it to the League of Arab States (36%) and to a lesser extent to the UN (30.5%).
The majority of the Jewish sector (35.6%) leans towards the UN, but almost a
quarter of respondents in this group also believe that such responsibility
should be placed on the United States.Secular Israelis more than others tend to place responsibility on the UN and the USA.Almost a quarter (23% of respondents) do not know who should be
responsible, which also indicates a high level of uncertainty in the situation
associated with the end of the war in the Middle East. Those who couldn’t
answer this question most often include Orthodox Israelis (25.2% compared to 10-15%
among traditional and secular Israelis).
Who do you think should be responsible for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of Gaza after the war and the elimination of Hamas? (You can give more than one answer)
| On average | Jewish sector | Arab sector | Orthodox | Secular | Traditional | |
| UN (United Nations) | 24% | 35,6% | 30,5% | 24,5% | 40,6% | 34,4% |
| United States | 14% | 23,5% | 24,5% | 22,5% | 27,2% | 19,0% |
| European Union | 12% | 12,1% | 23,5% | 12,6% | 11,3% | 12,9% |
| Russia | 5% | 10,3% | 19,0% | 9,3% | 11,9% | 8,6% |
| China | 2% | 4,6% | 5,5% | 3,3% | 4,2% | 5,7% |
| Other | 14% | 1,6% | 5,5% | 2,0% | 1,6% | 1,4% |
| League of Arab States | 35% | 19,3% | 36,0% | 19,2% | 19,5% | 19,7% |
| Don’t know | 23% | 15,1% | 8,5% | 25,2% | 10,8% | 15,4% |
| Total | 128% | 118,5% | 117,2% | 127,2% |
How do you think the current situation in Israel will or will not affect the date of the Knesset elections?
| Will not affect – elections will be held on time | 17% |
| Elections will be held in the near future | 20% |
| Elections will be held immediately after the end of the war | 35% |
| Elections will be postponed for a year after the war | 15% |
| Don’t know | 14% |
| Total | 100% |
The majority of respondents believe that the current situation in Israel will somehow affect the date of the Knesset elections, which, in our opinion, indicates a pronounced dissatisfaction of the respondents with the political situation.
35% of respondents claim that the elections will take place immediately after the end of the war, 20% believe that the elections will be held in the near future, and another 15% believe that the elections will be postponed for a year after the war. Only 17% are convinced that the current situation should not affect the timing of the Knesset elections due to the current situation in the country.
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Adopting the Constitution of the State of Israel will contribute to political stability in the country”?
More than half of the respondents (50%) either somewhat or strongly disagree with the statement that adopting the Constitution of the State of Israel contributes to political stability in the country. However, 37% of respondents still lean towards it being a positive step. The difference between those who somewhat agree and disagree with this statement is (-)13% (The sum of responses “Strongly agree” (17%) and “Somewhat agree” (20%) equals 37%. The sum of responses “Somewhat disagree” (35%) and “Strongly disagree” (15%) equals 50%). This indicates that the population is more inclined not to associate changes in the political situation with the adoption of the Basic Law of the country.
The Constitution Adoption Index, calculated as the difference between the sums of somewhat positive and negative responses, shows that the importance of adopting the Constitution for political stability in Israel increases from the younger group to the older group, from 33.8 to 42.0 ordinal points, and is highest among secular Jews (47.5) and lowest among Orthodox (14%).