“I Am Not Inclined”: War, Elections and Markets

October 21, 2026
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Israel votes in six days, the United States in thirteen. Trump stopped an Israeli strike on Iran until after his own elections, moved oil by several dollars with a single post and, nine days before Israel’s vote, declared Netanyahu Israel’s only right leader.

The Postponed Strike

On October 21 the Financial Times reported that Netanyahu had ordered the IDF to prepare multi-day strikes on Iran for the weekend of October 10, against nuclear facilities, power plants and infrastructure.1 Trump stopped the operation to avoid restarting the war before November 3. One person familiar with the talks called a joint US-Israeli strike in the coming weeks realistic. “There will either be a deal or an attack,” the person said.

American officials cited by Channel 12 see Netanyahu as the initiator of the strike, and the FT backed that version.21 IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned the Americans that a strike within three weeks would force a postponement of the October 27 election.3 On October 14, after the operation had been stopped, Netanyahu told Army Radio that attacking Iran now was not convenient for Israel.4

Dor Moriah’s preprint Delegated Order and Doctrinal Convergence (SSRN, March 18, 2026) shows that US strategic documents of 2025–2026 delegate coercion in the Middle East to Israel and formally reduce direct US involvement.5 By stopping the October 10 strike, Trump did not abandon handing the role to Israel. He showed that Washington sets the dates.

“The Wrong Leader”

For months Trump declined to endorse Netanyahu outright. In August, two people who spoke with him told Axios he had said, “Bibi is his own worst enemy.”6 On October 15 he told Newsmax, “In the world of politics, I don’t trust anybody.”7

On October 18 he endorsed Netanyahu on Truth Social and set a condition.8 “If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so,” Trump wrote. According to Maariv, Trump waited until internal polling showed Netanyahu had a real chance.9

The same day Naftali Bennett said he knew he would get along very well with Trump, but for Trump no other prime minister will do.8 Months of evasive answers gave way to the formula of a single leader.

Netanyahu replied with a video and said in English, “Donald, we have a job to finish. You said it, and we’ll finish it together.”10 He tied the elimination of the Iranian threat to his own victory.8

Polls after the post diverged. Channel 12 kept Likud at 21 seats against 24 for Eisenkot’s party, and 64% of respondents said Trump’s endorsement would not affect their vote.11 On October 20 Channel 14 gave Likud 30 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 62, a majority.12

“On a Historic Mission”

On October 19 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth flew unannounced to Ovda airbase, where, according to Axios, American tankers and fighter jets are stationed, and met Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz.13 The military censor initially barred Israeli media from reporting the visit.14 Hegseth wrote on X of the CENTCOM troops, “The best of our country, on a historic mission.”14

American troops left Iraq on September 30, so the tankers and fighters fly from Jordanian and Israeli bases.15 Since early October, Israeli F-35I jets with American support have rehearsed penetrating Iranian air defenses over Iraq.16 On the night after Hegseth’s visit Arab media reported aircraft over Jordan, Syria and Iraq, and Iranian channels claimed the United States and Israel had staged a mock strike.

Netanyahu’s Turkish Gambit

On October 5 Dor Moriah showed that the US ambassadors to Israel and Turkey, Mike Huckabee and Tom Barrack, either leave Ankara out of their criticism or take its side.17 Trump values Turkey, and on July 7 in Ankara he credited it with staying out of the war with Iran.18 On October 18, the day of Trump’s endorsement, Netanyahu said that “one of the things we don’t agree on is Turkey,” and added that he hoped to avoid a head-on collision.19 In a Dor Moriah survey, 34.4% of Israelis called Turkey a serious strategic threat, yet they prefer containment to escalation.20 Netanyahu has stopped speaking harshly about Turkey, which suits both Trump and Netanyahu’s own voters.

No Limits

On October 19 Al-Akhbar, the Beirut daily close to Hezbollah, reported that the US administration had warned President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam through the Lebanese ambassador that if Hezbollah joined the war, the Israeli response would have no limits.21 Before the February war it was Israel that delivered such warnings to Beirut, and now the United States delivers them.22

Oil Swings

On September 9, when Brent rose above $100 for the first time since July, Trump said, “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward.”23 On October 8, after reports that the Pentagon had told CENTCOM to prepare for a possible resumption of combat operations, Brent jumped about 5%, above $105 a barrel.24 The same day Trump wrote on Truth Social, “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections,” and Brent slipped to $103.2526

Trump has been swinging the oil market with statements on Iran since the war began, and October is one example among many. On March 23 he put off strikes on Iranian power plants, citing “productive” talks that Tehran denied, and Brent fell 8.5%.27 On August 2 he announced he would order US forces to hold off on new strikes because a deal was close, and Brent lost 5% in an evening, falling to $83.87.28

Deal or Attack

There will be no strike before the American elections. Until then there will be oil swings and a fight for votes.

The window after the American vote and before the new Congress convenes could prove the main one, and a strike in it, according to the FT’s source, would be joint. Israel gets American help, and Trump no longer has voters looking over his shoulder.

Amit Segal of Israel Hayom points to the War Powers Resolution, under which a president can conduct hostilities for 60 days without congressional approval.29 The outgoing Congress stays Republican until January 3.

Another FT source believes Israel’s preparations serve to pressure Tehran in negotiations. In that case there might be no strike at all, and the deal-or-attack formula works as an ultimatum.

The scenario hinges on Netanyahu winning the election. Otherwise, by the logic of Trump’s post, America will do the work on Iran without Israel.

Sources

  1. Financial Times, report on Israel’s plan to strike Iran on October 10 and Trump’s decision to put it off, October 21, 2026. https://www.ft.com/content/eb4d1101-45ed-4d03-9beb-42f7c87a58ea  2
  2. Times of Israel, “Netanyahu reportedly pressed Trump to renew Iran fighting before Israeli and US elections,” October 13, 2026. https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-reportedly-pressed-trump-to-renew-iran-fighting-before-israeli-and-us-elections/
  3. Ynetnews, “Iran war could force Israel to postpone election, IDF chief tells US officials,” October 8, 2026. https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1ybtvboml
  4. Times of Israel, “PM: Attack on Iran not convenient now, but signs show Israel’s enemies preparing assault,” October 14, 2026. https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-attack-on-iran-not-convenient-now-but-signs-show-israels-enemies-preparing-assault/
  5. Igor Kaminnyk (Dor Moriah), “Delegated Order and Doctrinal Convergence: U.S. and Israeli Strategic Texts in the Middle Eastern Reconfiguration, 2023–2026,” SSRN, March 18, 2026. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6422978
  6. Barak Ravid, “Trump stops short of endorsing Bibi as his campaign falters,” Axios, August 14, 2026. https://www.axios.com/2026/08/14/trump-netanyahu-israel-election-endorsement
  7. Jerusalem Post, “Donald Trump refuses to endorse Benjamin Netanyahu, claims he does not trust anybody,” October 16, 2026. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911903
  8. Times of Israel, “Trump offers ‘warrior’ Netanyahu ‘complete and total’ endorsement for reelection,” October 18, 2026. https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-offers-warrior-netanyahu-complete-and-total-endorsement-for-reelection/  2 3
  9. Jerusalem Post, “Israel elections: Donald Trump waited for favorable polling before endorsing Benjamin Netanyahu,” October 19, 2026. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-912118
  10. The National, “Hegseth meets Netanyahu in unannounced Israel visit amid Iran war concerns,” October 20, 2026. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/10/20/hegseth-meets-netanyahu-in-unannounced-israel-visit-amid-iran-war-concerns/
  11. Bloomberg (Spokesman-Review), “Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu falls flat with Israeli voters,” October 20, 2026. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/oct/20/trumps-endorsement-of-netanyahu-falls-flat-with-is/
  12. Israel National News, “A week to the elections: Netanyahu leads by 10 seats, five parties don’t qualify,” October 20, 2026. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/434913
  13. Axios, “Pete Hegseth meets Netanyahu in unannounced Israel visit before elections,” October 19, 2026. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/19/pete-hegseth-israel-visit-netanyahu-meeting
  14. Türkiye Today, “Hegseth meets Netanyahu, UAE officials at Israeli air base amid Iran war talk,” October 20, 2026. https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/hegseth-meets-netanyahu-uae-officials-at-israeli-air-base-amid-iran-war-talk-3230659  2
  15. Wikipedia, “Withdrawal of United States troops from Iraq (2025–2026)”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Iraq_(2025%E2%80%932026)
  16. Maariv, “Deep penetration and blinding the radars: the Israeli stealth jets’ exercise in Iranian skies revealed” (Hebrew), October 10, 2026. https://www.maariv.co.il/news/military/article-1375426
  17. Dor Moriah, “Qatar named, Turkey not” (Russian), October 5, 2026. https://dor-moriah.org.il/qatar-named-turkey-not/
  18. Israel National News, “Hinting at Israel? Trump: Turkey more loyal than other countries that bought F-35s,” July 7, 2026. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/429789
  19. JFeed, “Netanyahu: We don’t agree with Trump,” October 18, 2026. https://www.jfeed.com/news-israel/tn41d7
  20. Dor Moriah, “Turkey through the eyes of Israelis: a threat without confrontation” (Russian), June 11, 2026. https://dor-moriah.org.il/turkiye-through-the-eyes-of-israelis/
  21. Al-Akhbar, “Neutralizing Lebanon before striking Iran: the Tampa talks serve arranging the fronts” (Arabic), October 19, 2026. https://www.al-akhbar.com/NewspaperArticles/lebanon/907630/%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%A8%D9%84-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AE%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%A9
  22. Reuters, “Israel warns Lebanon of strikes if Hezbollah enters any US-Iran war, Lebanese officials say,” February 24, 2026. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/israel-warns-lebanon-hit-hard-113825935.html
  23. Alaska’s News Source (AP), “Trump: Oil prices likely won’t come down until after midterms as Iran war continues,” September 9, 2026. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/09/trump-oil-prices-likely-wont-come-down-until-after-midterms-iran-war-continues/
  24. Euronews, “Brent crude tops $105 as Trump weighs resuming ‘major combat operations’ in Iran,” October 8, 2026. https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/08/oil-prices-are-climbing-on-concerns-about-an-escalating-iran-war
  25. Times of Israel, “Trump says US won’t hit Iran this month as Zamir said to warn strike could delay Israel’s election,” October 8, 2026. https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-says-us-wont-hit-iran-this-month-as-zamir-said-to-warn-strike-could-delay-israels-election/
  26. Yahoo Finance, “Oil falls to $103 as Trump says US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections,” October 8, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/oil-falls-to-103-as-trump-says-us-will-not-attack-iran-before-the-midterm-elections-171630147.html
  27. Hargreaves Lansdown, “Trump postpones Iran strikes after productive talks, markets recover,” March 23, 2026. https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-news/company–news/trump-postpones-iran-strikes-after-productive-talks,-markets-recover
  28. AP (WTOP), “Oil prices drop after Trump orders US forces to hold off on new strikes against Iran,” August 2, 2026. https://wtop.com/business-finance/2026/08/oil-prices-drop-after-trump-orders-us-forces-to-hold-off-on-new-strikes-against-iran/

Amit Segal, “Even before the elections, growing signs of an impending strike on Iran,” Israel Hayom, October 15, 2026. https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/10/15/even-before-the-elections-growing-signs-of-an-impending-strike-on-iran/

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