{"id":8166,"date":"2025-08-14T14:20:35","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T11:20:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dor-moriah.org.il\/predicting-geopolitical-shifts\/"},"modified":"2025-09-15T11:05:37","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T08:05:37","slug":"predicting-geopolitical-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dor-moriah.org.il\/en\/predicting-geopolitical-shifts\/","title":{"rendered":"Projecting Geopolitical Shifts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Expert Assessment of the Trump\u2013Putin Summit and Its Implications for Israeli Strategic Interests<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Preliminary findings ahead of a nationwide Israeli public opinion survey<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Introduction<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Dor Moriah think tank conducted an expert survey from August 10\u201312, 2025, to forecast potential outcomes of the upcoming U.S.\u2013Russia summit on August 15 in Alaska and assess its potential impact on Israeli interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two-phase research design:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Phase One (completed):<\/strong> Expert survey to identify key themes and develop hypotheses<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Phase Two (forthcoming):<\/strong> Nationwide public opinion survey based on expert insights<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    2. Research Methodology<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Strategic expert selection across ideological perspectives:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    To capture the full spectrum of Israeli discourse, we selected 14 experts representing four distinct ideological approaches:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Liberal-internationalist<\/strong> (4 experts, 29%): Prioritize international law and Western partnerships<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Conservative-nationalist<\/strong> (4 experts, 29%): Emphasize sovereignty and traditional values<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Pro-Ukraine<\/strong> (3 experts, 21%): Support Ukraine on principle<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Russia-pragmatic<\/strong> (3 experts, 21%): View Russia as a strategic partner for Israel’s security<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Research instruments:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • 14 closed-ended questions using ordinal and nominal scales<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • 3 open-ended questions to identify overlooked factors<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Consensus defined as 70% agreement or more<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        3. Key Expert Predictions<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        Summit outcomes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        71% of experts anticipate only framework agreements with no substantive breakthroughs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “The Alaska summit already represents a diplomatic victory for the Kremlin. Putin gains legitimacy without making a single concession on Ukraine.” \u2014 Political scientist (liberal-internationalist perspective)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “When two strong leaders meet without being constrained by liberal orthodoxy, new possibilities emerge… Ukraine is secondary to a broader civilizational realignment.” \u2014 Rabbi and geopolitics expert (conservative-nationalist perspective)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The Iran factor:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        93% of experts identify Iran’s nuclear program as the most promising area for U.S.\u2013Russia cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “Iran is the only issue where American and Russian interests might align with Israel’s. But make no mistake\u2014Russia will leverage Iran to extract concessions on Ukraine.” \u2014 Military analyst<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        4. Projected Risks for Israel<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        Domestic political divisions:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Experts warn of potential fractures within the Russian-speaking community (approximately 13% of voters):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “Israel’s Russian-speaking population has never been more divided. Roughly 40% support Ukraine, 30% back Russia, and the rest are tired of the whole debate. Any official Israeli position following the summit could trigger domestic tensions.” \u2014 Political scientist<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Regional instability:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Without concrete agreements, 64% of experts predict increased anti-Western activity:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “If the summit produces no specific arrangements regarding Iran, Tehran will interpret this as permission to continue its current strategy. Expect proxy groups to escalate throughout the region.” \u2014 Security analyst<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        5. Strategic Recommendations<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        Consensus position<\/strong> (86% of experts): Maintain public neutrality while pursuing active back-channel diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “Public neutrality is our only viable option. We can’t afford to choose between our primary ally and the power that controls Syrian airspace.” \u2014 International relations expert<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Minority view:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “Neutrality is weakness. Russia has proven itself reliable in Syria… It’s time to openly align with those who genuinely protect our security.” \u2014 Political analyst (Russia-pragmatic perspective)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        6. Long-Term Implications<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        Experts identify a concerning trajectory:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “The real threat isn’t the summit itself but what it represents. Trump’s America is retreating from global leadership. An 83% cut to the State Department’s budget and the elimination of USAID\u2014these are warning signs. Israel must prepare for a world where American protection is no longer guaranteed.” \u2014 Rabbi and geopolitics expert<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        7. Conclusions and Next Steps<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        Core finding:<\/strong> While the summit is unlikely to produce breakthroughs, it will fundamentally reshape the diplomatic landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        “Despite their ideological differences, experts agree on one crucial point: the Alaska summit won’t yield breakthroughs, but it will reshape the diplomatic landscape… This requires Israel to fundamentally reconsider its foreign policy approach.” \u2014 Summary analysis<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Upcoming public opinion survey:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Based on expert insights and emerging hypotheses, we will survey the Israeli public on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • How U.S.\u2013Russia dialogue affects Israeli security<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Attitudes toward navigating great-power competition<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Perceptions of Iranian threats in the evolving geopolitical landscape<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Views on the Ukraine conflict across demographic groups<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Expert Assessment of the Trump\u2013Putin Summit and Its Implications for Israeli Strategic Interests Preliminary findings ahead of a nationwide Israeli public opinion survey 1. Introduction The Dor Moriah think tank conducted an expert survey from August 10\u201312, 2025, to forecast potential outcomes of the upcoming U.S.\u2013Russia summit on August 15 in Alaska and assess its potential impact on Israeli interests. Two-phase research design: 2. Research Methodology Strategic expert selection across ideological perspectives: To capture the full spectrum of Israeli discourse, we selected 14 experts representing four distinct ideological approaches: Research instruments: 3. Key Expert Predictions Summit outcomes: 71% of experts… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,37,51,55],"tags":[109,107,108,214,210],"class_list":["post-8166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-activity","category-articles-en","category-sociology","category-think-tank","tag-geopolitics","tag-israel","tag-middle-east","tag--en"],"yoast_head":"\nProjecting Geopolitical Shifts - Dor-Moriah<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Projecting Geopolitical Shifts Dor-Moriah - Think Tank\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dor-moriah.org.il\/en\/predicting-geopolitical-shifts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Projecting Geopolitical Shifts\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Projecting Geopolitical Shifts Dor-Moriah - 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