The Cassandra Complex is an important factor in human history. Some processes can be foreseen, but cannot be stopped. Apollo punished Cassandra with the gift of foresight, without the gift of persuasion. And Cassandra could not stop the Greek operation “Trojan Horse” and prevent the fall of Troy. Apollo’s “divine sarcasm” led to the dark ages of ancient Greece that followed the fall of Troy. A long period of cultural decline, loss of writing, and a dramatic decline in population.
A prime example of Cassandra Syndrome in modern times is the Holocaust. In 1933, the most prominent rabbi Chafetz Chaim prophesied to his disciple. He argued that the European Jews would perish and the Jews of Zion would be saved. He and some other rabbis who predicted the Holocaust could not convince the religious establishment of European Jews. They urged their flock not to move to Palestine. As a result, more than 80% of all religious Jews in Europe died in the Holocaust.
Today’s analysts are very afraid of Cassandra Syndrome. First, the customer requires projections that will provide quarterly profits here and now. Second, apocalyptic predictions scare everyone. Third, you can’t be too clever and threaten the customer’s financial statements.
Unfortunately, it is experts and analysts who shape the policies of the powerful. And for many of them, it is better to remain silent than to lose a contract by issuing a “Cassandra prediction.
Realpolitik and the Munich deal
Maybe that’s why the situation around the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is most often assessed in the well-established concepts of “Realpolitik”. In terms of geopolitical fiddling over financial interests and regional conflicts. In terms of internal political games with the electoral masses. And the description of the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh as the beginning of a major planetary conflict is not popular in the media. These approaches are not supported by world leaders either. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan compares the situation around Karabakh to the Munich Agreement of 1938. As a result of this “Realpolitik” Czechoslovakia was occupied by Hitler. But now Pashinyan’s analogies look like rhetorical manipulation of one of the parties to the conflict. A metaphor in the information war that runs parallel to the bloody clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh. And it will under no circumstances become a metaphor for an incipient world catastrophe. And for nothing.
The Prince of Chaos or the Mahdi of Istanbul
The main mistake analysts make is to fear Cassandra Syndrome. The vast majority of them blithely believe that Erdoğan has taken on an unbearable burden. Turkey is not able to play on several fronts at the same time. And the Turkish economy is not having the best of days. Foreign exchange reserves are falling and inflation is rising. As economist Steve Hanke argues, “Turkey is burning through its foreign exchange reserves… Since July, the Central Bank has spent nearly $10 billion. This brings its reserves to $41.12 billion. And anyway, what is this global ambition with 770 billion? GDP.
The standard of living of the population is declining. The social base of the Turkish president is a rural population of radical Islam. The population that feeds Erdogan’s mainstay, the “Muslim Brothers.” Its electoral base is small in big cities, especially in Ankara and Istanbul. Literate young people (as elsewhere in the world) are largely oppositional. There is no solution to the historical conflict with the Kurds.
Turkey’s foreign policy position is deteriorating. It has spoiled relations with almost every country in the world except Azerbaijan. They are strained with NATO, it has virtually no real allies left. The outright desire of Turkey’s leadership to restore the Ottoman Empire frightens world politicians. It scares the U.S., Russia, the EU and many other countries. In Europe, they fear a strengthening of the Muslim factor and a new wave of refugees. They say the figure is 3.5 million in Turkey, waiting in the wings. Russia is trying to prevent Erdogan from increasing his influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. And also in some other regions of the post-Soviet space. In addition, Arab countries will never recognize his leadership role in the Sunni world.
From a conventional point of view, everything fits.
Sultan’s cunning plan
But then why did the cunning Sultan get involved? Distract attention from internal problems? Just a fool? Doesn’t realize he’s being manipulated? Too much blatant “conventional wisdom,” unfortunately. He understands everything. For example, that economic growth is not necessary for the military mobilization of the population. On the contrary, it gets in the way. The financially independent middle class can be dangerous as a major participant in color revolutions. For the Turkish leader, the role of another sultan is not interesting; he is interested in the role of the Mahdi. A question for the fine experts of Islam: how can an Adjarian obtain such a status? At stake is the issue of Turkey’s leadership among radical Islamists on a global scale and the reformatting of the world.
Erdogan is creating a zone of controlled chaos. And the main role is played not by regular troops, but by religious radicals from the eastern hemisphere. Erdogan is rapidly taking them under his control with the active participation of Great Britain. This tree of absolute evil was not planted by him, but by the British and the Americans and the Saudis. But it is Erdoğan who would like to reap the fruit, or rather the harvest. The basic concept is the constant feeding of radicals in the form of support for controlled chaos.
Chaos Zone for the Mahdi
In the form of conflicts in different parts of the Old World. Young radicals from around the world will be given the opportunity to prove themselves. Implementing the ideas of a world caliphate and creating a springboard for the arrival of the Mahdi. Victory on the local front in Artsakh is not the main thing. The goal is for trained Islamist fighters to infiltrate further into Russia and Central Asia.
After that, many will go back to their countries, say England or France. There they will create centers of irredenta of the new Islamic state centered in Istanbul. And they will infect new followers with their ideas. Erdogan warned in 2017 that Europeans would not be able to walk the streets safely.
But the zone of chaos will extend not only to the north. The hosts of Mecca and Medina should prepare. Their alliance with Israel only strengthens Erdogan’s position among radical Islamists. Erdogan never tires of reminding us of the global evil of the Jewish state. On the need to bring Jerusalem back under the black banner of radical Islam. The Sunnis and the Jews, having signed the “Abrahamic agreement,” are bringing the war with Iran closer. They are being actively pushed to this war. This war would encompass countries where Shiite militias and pro-Iranian militias are strong. War will expand the zone of chaos throughout the Middle East.
The first intra-NATO war?
The conflict in the Mediterranean between Greece and Turkey is also intensifying. Greece has already demonstrated a combat deployment of naval forces between the 6 and 12-mile zone near the island of Kostelorizo. The Turkish research vessel Oruc Reis follows with an escort of national naval frigates. This squadron is seven nautical miles from a Greek island.
It is important to note that the chaos controlled by Erdogan is expanding rapidly. One could say that almost all the countries of the Old World are pervaded by Erdogan’s irredentists. Eventually a bifurcation point will come. It will no longer be groups of terrorists united by a nongovernmental organization. As was the case with ISIS (an organization banned in Russia and a number of countries). They will have their own special services and squads of armed activists. Their own local militias, corporations, and parties, not to mention the other instruments inherent in statehood. ISIS is just a test model. Erdogan has a real chance of making ISIS 2.0 perfect. And a great desire to become another “Mahdi.
Jerusalem Syndrome
Officially, Jerusalem syndrome is a relatively rare mental disorder. This is a type of megalomania among tourists or pilgrims who are in Jerusalem. The patient imagines and feels that he possesses divine and prophetic powers. It is as if he is the embodiment of a certain biblical hero. He is entrusted with a prophetic mission to save the world.
The strengthening of the religious factor in international politics makes the Jerusalem syndrome as widespread as the coronavirus. We could soon see a pandemic of the Jerusalem syndrome all over the world. And this pandemic is the best form of state of mind, to implement Erdogan’s plans. Religious wars are the most unpredictable and bloody. The struggle for eschatological values requires sacrifices among infidels.
But it is interesting to observe the invisible hand of the global market in the natural hotbed of the “Jerusalem syndrome. Greed deprives the government of reason and caution, which focus solely on the financial interests of its elites. A government that justifies its position with the dogmatism of Realpolitik. Israel’s position in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict fully confirms this thesis. Clearly, it’s nothing personal. Only business and the benefits of using Azerbaijani territory to control Iran.
Control with reconnaissance drones. With the help of pressure on a dangerous enemy factor of tens of millions of Azerbaijanis living in Iran.
The Weapon Barons of the Holy Land
Israel is fulfilling arms contracts with Azerbaijan. Even despite some force majeure circumstances in the form of the war in Karabakh. It is clear that Israel is helping Turkey and Erdogan personally to create chaos with its supplies. This chaos will come to Jerusalem sooner or later. It is clear that Israeli business is creating a very real opportunity for another genocide. Genocide, both of the Armenian people and probably in the long run of the Jewish people as well.
The range of weapons sent by Israel to Azerbaijan is very diverse. There are also cluster bombs, which Amnesty International found after the shelling of Stepanakert. Guided missiles, 120mm CARDOM self-propelled mortars and drones such as the Hermes 900. Israel has supplied 2.7 thousand Spike NLOS missiles and about 100 launchers for them to Azerbaijan. And the deliveries continue. Recently a cargo Boeing 747 of the Azerbaijani airline Silk Way Airlines flew from Tel Aviv to Baku. A cargo plane involved in supplying arms to a warring country. It flies through Turkish and Georgian airspace.
It is likely that the Israeli weapons will also get to the Islamist mercenaries. They participate in sufficient numbers in the war in Karabakh on the side of Azerbaijan. If it hasn’t already. I wonder if the Mossad will also control the supply of weapons purchased to potential terrorists. And Israeli unidentified aircraft will bomb the stores of these weapons at the terrorist bases. Exactly like they do in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq?
In our opinion, this is an extremely optimistic scenario. Exaggerating the capabilities of the Mossad, and underestimating the threats posed by Erdogan. A leader who makes no secret of his claims to Jerusalem. He confirmed them during his speech to the Turkish parliament on October 1, 2020. He especially emphasized that the return of Jerusalem is not a geopolitical issue, but rather a religious one.
Turkish Eschatology and Jerusalem
Erdogan’s eschatological ambitions and the signing of an “Abrahamic agreement” between the Sunni monarchies and the Israelis. These two factors make Turkey and Iran the main defenders of the interests of the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinians. Iran is dealt with by the Saudis and the Israelis. Istanbul, however, remains the main guarantor of the preservation of the PA and the status of Jerusalem. The unresolved situation with the Palestinian Authority becomes a “Trojan Horse. Jerusalem, like Troy, could fall if it did not solve its problems.
Turkey’s strengthening is taking place under the banner of creating a new Islamic world. This slogan unites the most radical, fanatical Islamic circles, creating a serious danger for Israel. It cannot be ruled out that Turkey will soon become a more dangerous enemy for Israel than Iran.
Europe’s Oil Needle
Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The outbreak of war almost coincided with the completion of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). The TAP AG consortium announced the completion of construction on October 12, 2020.
British Petroleum is one of the main beneficiaries of increased pipeline capacity from Azerbaijan to Europe. But apart from him, it is Turkey that receives the main dividends from the new pipeline. And it was Turkey that provoked and systematically prepared Azerbaijan to aggravate the military conflict with Armenia.
No one is disputing Turkey’s direct remote involvement in the conflict. Both U.S. and French authorities, as well as Russian officials, spoke about it. In this conflict, as in the oil business, the interests of Turkey and Great Britain coincided. Coincided with the appointment of George Moore, an old friend of Erdogan’s, as head of British MI6 intelligence. But about this source of Turkish successes later.
Turkey seeks to create the EU’s southern oil needle in cooperation with British Petroleum. She has every chance to do so, and she doesn’t miss it.
Pipelines of the Turkish Sultan
The list of pipelines that Istanbul manages both on its territory and on the territory of Azerbaijan is simply impressive. And the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, for which Italy will be ready to receive gas by November 2020. In addition to TAP, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) includes the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) and the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP). And that’s not counting the gas terminals for liquefied gas supplies.
The SOGC is the “southern gas needle,” through which Erdoğan can actively influence EU policy. With the active support of Britain, which is no longer a member of the EU.
The Russo-Turkish Hybrid War
Turkey’s gas needle is not only directed at the EU. Turkish pipelines pierce the “underbelly of Russia” farther and farther, penetrating into the territory of the former Soviet Union.
Turkey is gradually squeezing Russia out of the southern direction of gas supplies to Europe. Turkey devalues the importance of the Turkish Stream, which risks remaining half-empty. In July 2020, Erdogan stopped Blue Stream. Imports of Russian gas amount to 4.7 billion cubic meters. Compared to 7.99 billion for the same period in 2019, a drop of 41%. It should be noted that gas imports from Iran decreased even more. By 46%, to 2.03 billion m3. Russian gas is also being replaced by Turkey’s own gas found on the Black Sea shelf. Both Azerbaijani and liquefied gas delivered to Turkish terminals.
There are plans to connect the Central Asian countries to the SAGC as well. The interests of Turkey and British Petroleum, supported by MI6, will be promoted. Advancing to the traditional English special operations range – the Central Asian region.
The British ears of the Turkish Mahdi
The ties between Istanbul and the British intelligence community in the Central Asian direction are quite long-standing. For example, it was from the capital of the Ottoman Empire that the British supervised the Kokand uprising of 1875. The project to create a single state on the territory of all Turkic-speaking peoples “Great Turan”. He was also accompanied by British intelligence.
On some fronts, another “Russo-Turkish hybrid war” is entering its hot phase. The clash of Turkish and Russian interests in Syria, Libya were far from Russian borders. The experience of the Russian Air Force in Syria has shown that air strikes are effective in the fight against IS. But only when the IS has no air force of its own. And in their absence, an accidental Turkish missile can always ruin the plans of Russian pilots.
Mercenaries of Turkish Chaos
But now Turkey is already provoking chaos in the former Soviet Union. Erdogan uses mercenaries from Syria and Libya. And with the support of British intelligence services, Turkey is provoking Azerbaijan into war with Armenia. Turks involve militants in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, posing a threat to Russia in the North Caucasus.
The escalation of protests in Russia, the attempted color revolution in Belarus and another coup d’etat in Kyrgyzstan. The problems that arose after the transfer of power in Kazakhstan are obvious. All of this contributes to the general sense of chaos around Russia. Chaos amplifies the effect of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Richard Moore, in the tradition of British intelligence services, sees great potential in Turkey. The Turkic world provides successful competition with Russia and now with China. It should also be taken into account that the head of MI6 is well aware of the situation in the Caucasus. He visited Baku and knows the Azerbaijani elite very well. In his beautiful Turkish, he explains to the Azerbaijanis their interests clearly.
Erdogan’s Ukrainian Trail
With the direct support of George Moore, Turkey is opening another front against Russia – in the Ukrainian direction. The new head of the British secret service actively took up the Russian direction. Ukrainian President Zelensky met with the head of MI6 in London. George Moore’s office at 85 Albert Embankment. At the meeting they discussed mainly the issues of countering Russia. Zelensky’s visit to London coincided with a statement by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba. He announced the establishment of a British military base near Nikolaev. The infrastructure for espionage against Russia and informational influence on the population of Ukraine is funded and supervised by the British.
Zelensky’s visit to Istanbul, confirmed the linking of George Moore and Erdogan’s interests in the Russian direction. Zelensky enlisted Erdogan’s support for the return of Crimea. A territory which, in fact, is a subject of the Russian Federation. Territory protected by the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Russian military might. “We have always supported and will continue to support the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. Turkey has not and will not recognize the annexation of Crimea. Together with Ukraine, we will continue to support the Crimean Tatars,” Erdogan said. Joint projects in the military sphere were also discussed. For example, the installation of Ukrainian engines on Turkish drones.
It should be noted that in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Ukraine supported Azerbaijan, expecting that this would bring the cleansing of Donbass closer. The Ukrainian authorities hope for the military presence of NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine. On their more active intervention in the conflict in Donbass.
Epilogue or getting out of your comfort zone
By flirting with nationalist and religious radicals, the “player” hopes to subordinate them to his interests. This is what the Americans hoped for when they supported the Mujahideen against the Soviet Union and got 9.11. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych hoped so, too, supporting the Ukrainian nationalists. He barely escaped to Russia. Sunni monarchies hoped so too, supporting radical Islam. But getting Erdogan as “Mahdi.
And there are many such examples. We see that even now Britain and some other countries and financial groups support Erdogan. They hope to use it to their advantage.
What are the chances that the think tanks that define Russia will adopt the model described above? A model for further planning, under the working title “Turkish Flood”.
Adopting a model in which all your conventional Realpolitik methods absolutely do not work. When politics is dominated by the will to power, exacerbated by the Jerusalem syndrome. This model implies going beyond existing approaches to public policy formation. In adopting this approach, there is an awareness of the risks that are critical for Russia. And countering these risks requires financial and intellectual effort. Requires stepping out of your “comfort zone.
Even the expression of concern requires a meaningful effort by the bureaucratic machine.
Yesterday’s speech by Vladimir Putin at Valdai shows that Russia has an understanding of global challenges. And the trust that the President of Russia spoke of is an important element of international politics. Of course, if it is considered in the format of the conventional model of international relations.
What is surprising is the composure and lack of aggressive reaction to the question about Erdogan and his statements on Crimea. This means that Russia is increasingly shifting to language characteristic of traditional Byzantine politics. And this is one of the possible options for fighting the policy of chaos promoted by the Turkish Mahdi.
The Age of Change releases a whole flock of black and white swans. Only those who know what they are striving for can take advantage of this situation. And solving problems as they arise is also a strategy, but a losing one.
Igor Kaminnik for iines.org