Expert Survey
Introduction
The Dor Moria Research Group conducts regular surveys aimed at analyzing and forecasting socio-political trends in Israel.
Donald Trump’s policies have had significant effects on global affairs, including the critical U.S.-Israel relationship. His influence on the Middle East—a region vital to Israel—is particularly noteworthy.
This expert survey seeks to evaluate the impact of Trump’s statements and appointments on shaping Israel’s domestic and international agenda.
Purpose of the Expert Survey
The primary goal of this survey is to provide a rapid assessment of potential changes in Israel’s internal and external dynamics following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.
The survey objectives are divided into two categories:
I. Analytical and Predictive:
– Assess the potential influence of Trump’s policies on:
• U.S.-Israel relations.
• Israel’s role and standing in the Middle East.
• Internal and external challenges facing Israel.
– Evaluate the role of religious and messianic factors in shaping public sentiment and government policy in Israel.
II. Methodological:
– Gather detailed insights to develop tools for a broader public opinion survey on this topic.
The survey engaged a diverse panel of experts, including political scientists, religious leaders, journalists, NGO representatives, international relations specialists, sociologists, national security experts, diplomats, and historians.
The data collection process involved a structured questionnaire with open-ended questions.
The survey results will form part of an analytical report designed to:
- Forecast how Trump’s policies may influence Israel’s internal and external challenges.
- Analyze potential risks and opportunities for Israel in the shifting geopolitical landscape.
- Assess the role of religious factors in shaping public opinion.
- Provide actionable recommendations for Israeli policymakers to craft balanced strategies amid complex geopolitical changes.
Key Insights from Dor Moria’s 2023–2024 Surveys
September 2023
- Societal Divide: A significant split exists between secular and religious Israelis. Secular Israelis largely support Democrats, while religious Israelis tend to back Republicans.
- Support for Republicans among religious groups ranged between 33% and 50%.
- Secular and Arab-Israeli citizens predominantly favored a Democratic victory (43–45%).
- Political Tensions: Political preferences were closely tied to protests against judicial reforms.
August–September 2024
- Increased Support for Trump: Trump’s support among Israelis consolidated at 57.6%.
- Decline in Support for Harris: Kamala Harris’s support dropped to 15.5%.
- Persistent Societal Divide: The secular-religious divide remains a critical fault line.
- U.S. Influence on Security: 82% of Israelis consider U.S. influence vital to Israel’s security.
- Preference for Republicans on Security: There is a broad consensus favoring the Republican Party for security-related policies.
- Iran’s Role: The Iranian factor continues to play a central role in strengthening the Israel-U.S. alliance.
Questions for the Expert Survey
- How would you assess Donald Trump’s strategic and tactical approaches in U.S. domestic and international politics?
- What impact will Trump’s policies have on systemic changes in the United States, and what are the long-term implications for Israel?
- How do you evaluate the influence of Trump’s policies on regional dynamics in the Middle East and Israel’s future?
- What are the possible scenarios for Israel’s future in the context of global transformations?
- How will Trump’s policies affect the role of religious factors and messianic ideas in modern geopolitics, particularly in Israel?
Key Findings from the Expert Survey
1. The Duality of Trump’s Policies
2. Systemic Transformation of the U.S.
3. Contradictions in Israeli Expectations
4. Religious and Messianic Dimensions of the Conflict
5. Scenarios for Israel’s Future and the Global Context
6. Israel Between the Collective West and the Global South
Conclusion
Amid rising messianic expectations and the religious dimensions of conflict, Israel’s technological leadership has emerged as a critical counterbalance to radicalization, fostering pragmatic dialogue between key power centers.
Israel’s future hinges on its ability to reconcile religious aspirations with pragmatic developmental goals. Trump’s administration, blending messianic undertones with geopolitical ambitions, presents both opportunities and significant risks.
Success for Israel will depend on crafting a developmental model that integrates spiritual values with technological advancement.
Experts emphasize: “Israel’s true greatness may lie not in fulfilling apocalyptic prophecies, but in establishing a successful model of development that harmonizes spiritual values with technological progress.” This vision offers an alternative to scenarios of religious confrontation.
Israel’s future will largely depend on its level of sovereignty and its capacity to adapt to global transformations. While Trump’s pro-Israel stance is evident, his policies are part of a broader process of global change. Israel’s success will be determined by its ability to balance various global and regional players and transition from being a regional military outpost of the U.S. to becoming a global technological and economic bridge.
