This analytical report, prepared by experts from the Dor Moria Policy Center, examines the dramatic transformation of Syria’s political landscape in the aftermath of the Assad regime’s collapse in December 2024. The analysis centers on Ahmed al-Sharaa—better known in the past as Abu Mohammed al-Julani—who has undergone a stunning transformation from jihadist leader to internationally recognized Syrian president in just six months.
The document provides a comprehensive assessment of the emerging regional power dynamics, where traditional alliances have given way to pragmatic partnerships. Particular attention is paid to the escalating confrontation between Turkey and Israel, the paradoxical convergence of Russian, American, and Israeli interests in Syria, and the ambitious investment plans of Gulf monarchies, with pledged investments running into the billions.
The authors critically evaluate the concept of establishing an “anti-jihadist belt” comprised of religious minorities, drawing parallels with Israel’s failed alliance with Lebanese Maronites. The analysis highlights the risks of sectarian violence, particularly in light of the systematic killing of Alawites in spring 2025 and the crisis in the Druze province of As-Suwayda.
Special consideration is given to Syria’s potential accession to the Abraham Accords—an ambitious project for normalizing relations with Israel that is fraught with both domestic and regional challenges. The report examines diplomatic initiatives, backchannel negotiations, and the complex web of regional interests that could either facilitate or derail this historic possibility.
The conclusion presents three future scenarios with probability assessments: “managed chaos” (60%), direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel (25%), and authoritarian stabilization (15%). The analysis emphasizes that Syria’s future remains highly uncertain, with the region’s stability hanging precariously between pragmatic cooperation and catastrophic conflict.
The Syrian Puzzle: Between Reality and the Probability of an Anti-Jihadist Belt