As part of the Haifa Format project, a series of sociological studies were conducted throughout 2023. The results of these studies revealed that the vision of the future of Israel among Israelis is highly eclectic. This indicates a lack of a prioritized vision for the future of Israel and the Middle East. In this context, it is important to understand to what extent Israel is able to formulate and advance its interests. It is possible that the peace in the Middle East may not be Israel’s immediate prospect.
The future of the Middle East will be shaped by the most influential political leaders. We were interested in the opinions of Israelis regarding the impact of politicians on the situation in the Middle East in 2023. Additionally, the position and capabilities of these leaders in potentially establishing peace in the Middle East are of interest.
It may turn out that the most influential and the most peace-oriented leader are different individuals. In such a case, Israelis may perceive the situation in the Middle East as problematic.
It could happen that, according to Israelis, the leader for each of these issues might not be a Middle Eastern politician. Thus, in the view of Israelis, the situation in the Middle East might be driven by external actors. Hopes for peace, too, could be associated with global leaders from outside the region.
To conduct a mass survey, it was necessary to compile a list of global political leaders, especially those most prominent in the Israeli media space, particularly after October 7.
To create this list, we conducted a content analysis of sources, examining Israeli media and social networks (including X and Telegram). As a result, we compiled a list of 16 individuals.
Who Influences the Middle East:
- Biden Joseph;
- Guterres António;
- Zelensky Vladimir;
- Macron Emanuel;
- Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan;
- Narendra Modi;
- Netanyahu Benjamin;
- Putin Vladimir;
- Trump Donald;
- Raisi Ebrahim;
- Erdogan Recep;
- Mohammed bin Salman al Saud;
- Xi Jinping;
- Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani;
- Ursula von der Leyen;
- Scholz Olaf.
To enhance the quality and simplicity of the survey for respondents, we decided to streamline the list. We enlisted experts, including Israeli political analysts, journalists, and rabbis, to assess the significance of each figure in Middle Eastern politics. Following the expert interviews, eight political leaders were identified. This list was then utilized for a large-scale sociological survey:
- Benjamin Netanyahu;
- Joseph Biden;
- Donald Trump;
- Vladimir Putin;
- Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud;
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan;
- Emmanuel Macron;
- Ebrahim Raisi.
Some justifications obtained from the expert interviews are provided, both for the selected politicians and those excluded from the final list.
Selected Politicians:
Benjamin Netanyahu:
He is a key figure in Israeli politics in the Middle East. His leadership and decisions often influence regional events. His position in relations with Palestine and other Middle Eastern countries shapes the political agenda.
Joe Biden:
As the President of the United States, he holds significant influence over the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. American support for Israel largely defines U.S. policy in the region. Much of this position is shaped by the personality of Joe Biden.
Donald Trump:
During his presidency, he actively intervened in the situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and the peace process between Israel and Palestine. His decisions, including recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, had a substantial impact on regional dynamics. Presidential elections in the U.S. are scheduled for October 2024. Many experts believe that Trump might become the new President of the United States, and the fate of many conflicts in the world depends on the election results.
Vladimir Putin:
Russia plays a significant role in Middle Eastern politics, evident in its support for Syria, relations with Iran, and other Global South countries. Recently, the Kremlin has intensified its activities in the Middle East, as seen in Putin’s visits to the UAE and SA, and Lavrov’s successful visit to Marrakech for the Russia-Arab Cooperation Forum. All of this demonstrates Russia’s increased influence in Middle Eastern politics.
Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud:
The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is a key player in regional affairs. His decisions, particularly regarding conflicts in the region, impact the political landscape. A crucial factor in Saudi Arabia’s role in Middle East reconciliation is the Gulf monarchies’ interest in implementing the Abraham Accords, including economic projects planned within the framework of these agreements.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:
The President of Turkey actively participates in Middle Eastern politics. Turkey, along with Iran, is the only country that actively criticizes Israel at the state level. Additionally, Erdoğan provides direct support to HAMAS. Turkey aspires to leadership in the Islamic world, and Erdoğan actively interferes in political processes in the Middle East.
Emmanuel Macron:
France plays a distinct role in regional politics, participating in peace talks and diplomatic efforts. Challenges in advancing French interests in Africa should be considered. Macron seeks to restore France’s status in Middle Eastern countries, with interests in strengthening French influence in Lebanon, Syria, and other nations.
Ebrahim Raisi:
The decisions of the President of Iran regarding Israel and the Palestinians hold significant importance for the Middle East. Considering the substantial presence of Shiite formations in the region, Iran’s role is challenging to underestimate. The situation with the Houthis and the blockade of the Red Sea illustrates the potential consequences of ignoring Iran’s interests.
Excluded Politicians:
António Guterres (UN Secretary-General):
Guterres’ influence as the UN Secretary-General extends beyond the Middle East, primarily focusing on peacekeeping and general diplomacy. The inefficiency of UN agencies diminishes Guterres’ role in the Middle East.
Narendra Modi (Prime Minister of India):
India has its interests in the region, notably Modi’s collaboration with Israel and participation in U.S.-led transboundary anti-China projects. However, Modi’s role is less conspicuous compared to other leaders in Middle Eastern politics.
Xi Jinping:
China plays a crucial role in global politics and economics, being the second-largest economy after the USA. China has substantial influence on global markets, trade, and investment flows. Nevertheless, active tension between the U.S. and China hampers the effectiveness of Chinese policy in the Middle East.
Volodymyr Zelensky:
The role of the President of Ukraine is centered around issues related to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and relations with Ukraine’s sponsors. Zelensky’s influence in the Middle East is limited, especially in the context of Israel’s conflict with Hamas.
Ursula von der Leyen:
As the President of the European Commission, her policies focus on EU interests, with her role in Middle Eastern issues mediated through EU policy. The EU lacks direct influence for impacting political events in the Middle East.
Olaf Scholz:
The Chancellor of Germany has influence on the European Union and international relations, but his interests are concentrated on Germany’s economic issues, relations with Russia, and the Ukrainian conflict.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani:
Qatar has actively participated in negotiations for the return of abducted Israelis. The Emir of Qatar’s influence is often oriented towards regional stability and economic relations in the Persian Gulf. Qatar’s policy is not as actively directed toward events and conflicts in other parts of the Middle East.
Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan:
The President of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has significant influence on Middle Eastern politics. UAE, having already signed the Abraham Accords, largely follows Saudi Arabia’s policy. The signing of an agreement with Israel is still in the planning stages. Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s policy is aimed at promoting UAE’s interests within the Persian Gulf.
Conclusions from the Experiment:
The planned mass sociological survey has a predictive nature, indirectly allowing the characterization of the information field of Israelis. This, in turn, will help assess their perception of the situation and prospects in the Middle East.
In addition to the aforementioned methods of content analysis and expert interviews, we also utilized the services of Artificial Intelligence. We asked artificial intelligence about the influence of world powers on the situation in the Middle East without specifying any geopolitical players. Here is the list that artificial intelligence provided:
Major Forces Influencing the Middle East:
United States of America:
The U.S. has long played a key role in Middle Eastern politics. Support for Israel, interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and an anti-Iranian policy impact the political situation in the region.
Russian Federation:
Russia has become a significant player in the Middle East. Intervention in the Syrian conflict in support of Bashar al-Assad’s government has strengthened relations with Iran.
European Union:
The EU applies a “soft power” policy to the region, emphasizing diplomacy, trade, and development. EU countries aim to contribute to conflict resolution and political stabilization in the region.
People’s Republic of China:
China is increasing its influence in the region through investments and trade, particularly within the “Belt and Road Initiative.” Relations with Iran and investments in the Middle East’s energy sector are crucial for China.
Turkey:
Turkey aims to become a regional power. Erdogan pursues an active policy regarding Syria, Iraq, and Gulf countries. A significant direction of Turkish policy is the restoration of the neo-Ottoman Empire.
Iran:
Iran seeks to expand its influence among Shiites in the region. It supports Shiites in countries such as Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Yemen (Houthis).
AI did not include Saudi Arabia and Israel. China did not make it into our final list, yet some overlaps are quite interesting.