Will Israel’s foreign policy situation and the geopolitical configuration of its relationships change in a situation “Without Hamas”? If yes, how and why?
Based on the responses, if political changes do occur, the expectations are generally positive. The majority of respondents see the positive impact of the “Gaza without Hamas” situation primarily on regional relations, especially in terms of strengthening ties between Israel and Arab countries, as well as on the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process – “In all cases and scenarios, it will only improve.”
“The neutralization of Hamas’s role in the Gaza Strip can have a significant impact on Israel’s foreign policy and geopolitical relations. A weakened or absent Hamas provides Israel with opportunities to strengthen its regional relations, especially with Arab countries that have expressed interest in normalization, such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.”
“The absence of the Hamas threat could reduce the barrier for deeper cooperation. Furthermore, the elimination of Hamas as the main player in the Palestinian territories could change the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. This could prompt Israel to engage more actively with the Palestinian Authority or other moderate Palestinian groups, potentially leading to a resumption of negotiations. International pressure and diplomatic efforts may play a role in advancing these changes.”
Several scenarios reflect the ambiguity (but more likely positive) impact on Israel’s foreign policy of neutralizing the role of the Hamas organization: “Changes in Israel’s foreign policy and its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can affect public opinion both inside the country and abroad. These changes can influence how Israel is perceived on the world stage, although opinions may be strongly polarized and not always shift towards a ‘positive’ view.” “Relations with the United States, Russia, China will not change; with the Palestinians, it will change if the Palestinian state is formed”; “Cooperation with Saudi Arabia will continue, and diplomatic relations and military-economic alliances will develop.”
“Gaza without Hamas will require international joint participation – at the level of values, principles, managerial technologies, and significant financial subsidies. Investments from different countries will be needed to create new infrastructure and a new political structure for Gaza.”
“The possibility of improving living conditions and access to basic services for the residents of Gaza can be seen as a positive event on the world stage, and international players may react accordingly.”
Also, among the responses, there is a position stating the lack of influence of the “Gaza Without Hamas” situation on Israel’s international position.
“Maybe, only hypothetically. Geo-practically – NO: Qatar continues to ‘sit’ on the ‘gas barrel.’ The Muslim world has over a billion people and continues to grow. The Arab ummah is united by the ‘narrative of injustice’ associated with the existence of the State of Israel. The existence of Israel is NOT essential for such ‘grand powers’ as China, India, Brazil (states outside the ‘collective West’). Russia is dealing with its own fundamental problems.”
Also presented is an absolutely ‘relativistic’ response: “I suppose all states in their relations with Israel will be guided by the ‘facts on the ground’ in Gaza and the actions of Israel that led to these facts. I do not see a situation where the ethnic or ethno-political composition of the population in the Sector would be different” – this response is from a respondent who does not entertain the possibility of ‘Gaza Without Hamas,’ as they are convinced of the total support and dedication of the sector’s residents to this organization.