Reasons for interest
Mass demonstrations have been taking place in Israel for several months as a reaction to changes in the political system. So what foreign policy risks can change the situation inside the country? What threats to Israeli security do they pose?
Deteriorating relations with Muslim countries, Iran’s expansive policy, supported by China. These and other challenges make Israel’s security situation extremely problematic. One of the foreign policy risks is the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict. Israel’s involvement in this conflict on the side of Ukraine may contribute to the deterioration of the security situation. Pressure on Israel to engage in the conflict affects the domestic political agenda. It adds uncertainty and chaos to Israel’s rather unbalanced political system. Creates new threats, new risks.
Experts and Sociology
TheDor MoriahAssociation has been implementing theHaifa FormatProject since 2018, which originated as a community initiative. As part of this initiative,Dor Moriah 2023 conducted an expert survey and a sociological study. Sociological survey on “Attitudes of Israelis to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Ukraine.
The subject of the study is the study of Israeli opinions on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the participation of the state of Israel in it.
The important objectives of the study were:
- To find out the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the population groups characterized by different positions on the role of Israel in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict;
- Analysis of Israeli views on the fears and preferences associated with increased Israeli involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict;
Two surveys were conducted in order to meet the objectives of the study : an expert interview and a mass survey of “non-Russian-speaking” Israelis.
By “non-Russian-speaking” Israelis in the study we mean “sabras. This is the part of the population that was born in Israel or immigrated to Israel as a child. Members of this group are fully integrated into the Israeli culture and linguistic environment.
The main purpose of the expert interview was to refine the questions for the mass questionnaire survey. The expert interview was conducted in March 2023.
The experts were foreign and domestic policy experts and opinion leaders. A legal rabbi, journalists specializing in the topic, a professional politician, and a sociologist spoke on the topic. Activists involved in helping refugees from Russia and Ukraine were also interviewed.
The sociological survey on the questionnaire, developed by the expertsof “Dor Moria“, was conducted by the Sociological Center “ מאגר מוחות “.
Results and discussion
The results of the study will be presented at theHaifa Format meeting. The meeting will be held in a roundtable format. It is attended by deputies, scientists, journalists, and civic activists. Experts will discuss foreign and domestic political risks for Israel. Risks arising from Israel’s active involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on one side or the other. The meeting takes place in the second half of April 2023.
Some conclusions
At the moment, the results of the expert survey and primary data of the questionnaire have been prepared, on the basis of which some conclusions can already be made:
There is constant interest in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict among (Russian-speaking) Israelis who have dual loyalties. These are Israeli citizens who are dominated by loyalty to the country of origin, not to Israel. They seek to influence the situation in the source countries involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This category also includes natives of countries in the former Soviet Union. Of Israel’s ten million people, the Russian-speaking population is one and a half million. Citizens for whom what is happening in the former Soviet Union is an important part of their lives.
Most Israelis who were born here, who are called “sabras,” see no difference between Russia and Ukraine. Many of them believe that Ukraine is part of Russia or some part of it. Of those who know that these are different countries, they often do not understand the meaning of the conflict. They don’t understand what caused the war between Russia and Ukraine. These people are guided by information “from TV,” which is often pro-Ukrainian.
For religious Israelis, Ukraine evokes heavy historical allusions. These allusions are related to the numerous examples of the mass extermination of the Jews on the territory of modern Ukraine. This memory is enshrined, both at the level of historical facts and at the level of significant religious dates.
The Ukrainian policy of glorifying historical figures involved in the extermination of the Jews in Ukraine is shuddering. Especially for “non-Russian-speaking” Israelis from the ultra-Orthodox sector.
Historical Memory and Political Reaction
“The ninth of Av is the national day of mourning for the Jewish people. The Israelites remember not only the destruction of the First and Second Temples of Jerusalem. Israelis also remember the terrible pogroms of Bogdan Khmelnitsky, the Koliivshchina and other facts of the mass extermination of the Jews.
These acts of genocide against the Jews have been taking place in Ukraine for centuries. Ultra-Orthodox rabbis are well aware of the history of the time of Bogdan Khmelnitsky. The Ukrainian leader who killed between 100,000 and 300,000 Jews. One remembers the time of Petlyura, the leader of the Ukrainian state, who murdered 200,000 Jews. There are still witnesses to the “exploits” of Ukrainian nationalists who supported the policies of the Third Reich. According to Yad Vashem about six hundred thousand Jews were murdered in Ukraine.
Minimizing participation
“Most of the Sabers are interested in minimizing Israeli involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This position is not about supporting populations affected by the conflict. Israeli peacekeeping efforts are considered preferable to active military support of one of the sides. The reason for this attitude is the understanding that it is simply not beneficial for Israel to quarrel with Russia. This is not ideology, but simple pragmatism. It is counterproductive for Israel to quarrel with Russia, if only because it is here [nearby] in Syria. Most of the experts, argue that this is “not Israel’s war. The government should not get involved in a ‘foreign’ conflict.”.
Discussions for Peace
Dor Moriahplans to makethe Haifa Formata permanent discussion platform. A forum for discussing possible social and political risks for Israel. Continuous monitoring of public opinion and expert assessments of the situation in foreign and domestic policy is planned.