Question 1. How would you assess the dynamics of relations between Israel and the U.S.?
Overall, the strong relationship between Israel and the U.S. is explained by “shared values and strategic interests.” “Despite some political disagreements, the strategic partnership between Israel and the U.S. remains strong, especially in the areas of military cooperation and intelligence sharing.” Furthermore, “despite political disagreements, economic cooperation continues to develop, particularly in high technology and innovation. Nevertheless, Israel is beginning to establish production capabilities to strengthen its independence from U.S. military supplies.”
The growing tension between Israel and the U.S. is primarily attributed by experts to the fact that “Biden administration is more critical of Israel’s policies in the Palestinian territories and seeks to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, which causes serious concern in Israel.” They also mention “the recent divergence on certain issues, particularly regarding the Palestinian problem and the approach to Iran.”
“Despite maintaining the strategic partnership, disagreements on key issues, such as the Palestinian problem and the rights of the Arab minority in Israel, are increasing. The U.S. administration is increasingly critical of Israel’s policies toward Palestinians and Arab citizens.”
“The strategic partnership between Israel and the U.S. remains strong, but there is a growing divide on several issues, including the Iranian nuclear program and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Changes in administrations in both countries also affect the dynamics of relations.”
Fluctuations in the relationship are explained by the fact that “historically, Israel-U.S. relations have always been characterized by cyclicality. Periods of close cooperation were followed by periods of tension. This trend continues today, reflecting the complexity and multifaceted nature of bilateral relations.” One expert points out that “internal processes in both countries can temporarily influence the dynamics of the relationship.”
Question 2. What trends do you think will characterize the relations between Israel and the U.S. in the near future?
The increase in destabilization is explained by the following: “Divergences on key issues, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and relations with Iran, are likely to intensify. Additionally, domestic political changes in both countries could lead to further cooling of relations”; “Given current global trends and domestic political processes in both countries, an increase in instability in relations is likely. Disagreements on key regional issues could lead to periods of cooling, although the strategic partnership will persist”; “The ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories and discrimination against Arab citizens of Israel will increasingly attract criticism from the U.S., leading to heightened tensions in the relationship”; “Disagreements on key issues, such as Palestinian rights and settlement activities, are likely to intensify. This could lead to more strained relations between the two countries.”
The increase in stability is associated with the following: “Despite current disagreements, shared interests and values will contribute to stabilizing relations. Both countries understand the importance of cooperation in an unstable region”; “Despite political disagreements, the economic interests of both countries will help stabilize relations. Israel’s innovative potential will continue to attract American investments and technology companies”; “Common challenges, such as regional security and the fight against terrorism, are likely to strengthen cooperation. Both countries recognize the importance of maintaining strong bilateral relations.”
Fluctuations in the relationship as a prospect are explained as follows: “Historically, Israel-U.S. relations have always been characterized by cyclicality. Periods of close cooperation have been followed by periods of tension. This trend continues today, reflecting the complexity and multifaceted nature of bilateral relations. Relations are expected to fluctuate depending on the political climate in both countries and developments in the Middle East. Shared strategic interests will promote rapprochement, but disagreements on certain issues may lead to periodic cooling.”
Question 3. What, in your opinion, has been the trend in the change of Israel’s (in)dependence on the U.S. over the past 10 years?
In explaining their positions, experts noted that Israel’s dependence on the U.S. has either remained unchanged or increased slightly because “despite some increase in military aid, Israel is trying to diversify its international ties. However, in key security matters, dependence on the U.S. remains high”; “Israel continues to rely on the U.S. for security and diplomatic support but maintains its independence in making key decisions”; “Over the past decade, Israel has sought greater autonomy in regional politics, but dependence on the U.S. in security and diplomatic support remains high. The changes can be characterized as minor”; “The level of Israel’s dependence on the U.S. remains roughly the same. While Israel has expanded its international ties, the strategic partnership with the U.S. continues to play a crucial role in security and diplomacy”; “Over the past decade, Israel has sought greater autonomy in regional politics, but dependence on the U.S. in security and diplomatic support remains high. The changes can be characterized as minor.”
Regarding the slight increase in Israel’s independence, it was noted that “over the past decade, Israel has significantly strengthened its position in the global economy, particularly in the fields of innovation and startups. This has allowed for the diversification of economic ties and a reduction in dependence on the U.S.” Experts agree that “in the military sphere dependence remains high, especially in terms of the supply of advanced weapons.” However, they emphasize that “Israel continues to develop its own defense industry, which somewhat reduces this dependence,” but “in regional politics, Israel often acts contrary to the wishes of the U.S., especially regarding the Palestinian issue and settlement activities.” Additionally, in the economic and diplomatic spheres, Israel strives for greater autonomy by developing relationships with other global players such as China and India.”
Question 4. In your opinion, does Israel need to move towards greater independence from the U.S.?
The majority of experts justify the need for Israel to increase its independence from the U.S., emphasizing that “Israel should pursue a more independent policy, especially in matters of human rights and relations with the Palestinians. Excessive dependence on the U.S. limits opportunities for peaceful resolution of regional conflicts”; “Israel should pursue a more balanced and independent policy that takes into account the interests of all citizens of the country, including the Arab minority. Excessive dependence on the U.S. limits opportunities for a fair resolution of regional issues”; “Economic diversification is extremely important for Israel’s sustainable development. We should continue to strengthen ties with other economic centers such as the EU, China, and India, while maintaining strong relations with the U.S.”; “Israel needs to develop a more independent foreign policy and strengthen ties with other global players, such as India and China. This does not mean breaking with the U.S., but rather adopting a more balanced approach”; “From a historical perspective, it is important for Israel to develop a more independent position on the international stage. This does not mean breaking with the U.S., but rather adopting a more balanced foreign policy and expanding the circle of strategic partners.” The partnership with the U.S. remains critically important for Israel. Instead of seeking independence, we should work on deepening mutual understanding and expanding areas of cooperation, while also developing relationships with other countries”; “Israel needs to diversify its international ties to reduce its vulnerability to changes in American politics. However, this should happen gradually, without sudden moves that could harm the strategic partnership with the U.S.”; “Israel needs to develop a more independent position on the international stage. This does not mean breaking with the U.S., but rather adopting a more balanced foreign policy and expanding the circle of strategic partners.”
As seen from the provided quotes, experts repeatedly emphasize that the increase in Israel’s independence from the U.S. does not imply severing ties with the U.S., but rather a rebalancing of the interests of both countries, highlighting the orientation towards the sustainability of these relationships.
The main reason why Israel does not need to increase its independence from the U.S. is that “the alliance with the U.S. is critically important for Israel’s security,” so “instead of striving for independence, we should work on strengthening mutual understanding and cooperation.”
Conclusions
Relations between Israel and the U.S. are characterized by increasing uncertainty.
The strong relationship between Israel and the U.S. is explained by shared values and strategic, primarily political and economic, interests.
Growing tensions between Israel and the U.S. are primarily linked by experts to disagreements over the Palestinian issue, the rights of Arab minority in Israel, and the approach to relations with Iran.
The degree of Israel’s independence from the U.S. over the past 10 years has generally shown a slight trend towards weakening. However, in some areas, there are also trends towards increasing independence, manifesting, for example, in Israel’s orientation towards diversifying its international ties and striving for greater autonomy in regional politics. Meanwhile, dependence on the U.S. in matters of security and diplomatic support remains high.
Overall, the experts reach a consensus on the need for Israel to move towards greater independence from the U.S. (Israel should pursue a more independent policy, especially in matters of human rights and relations with the Palestinians, continue to strengthen ties with other economic centers such as the EU, China, and India, while maintaining strong relations with the U.S.), while continuing to develop relations with the U.S., not opposing one relationship to another, since the alliance with the U.S. is critically important for Israel’s security.