Materials of intelligence research ‘Israel after the war’

Now, with the extensive bombardment of Gaza underway and a ground operation in progress, it is clear that defeating HAMAS is only a part of the problem. The justification of this difficult operation largely depends on what further decisions will be made regarding the Gaza Strip and how the situation in this territory will develop further, without Hamas.

In this regard, at the end of October – beginning of November 2023, an “intelligence study” was conducted among Israelis on the topic “Israel after the war”. The purpose of the survey was to identify possible scenarios related to the neutralizing of the influence of the Hamas organization and the consequences of this event, both for Israel and for the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

One of the tasks of this research was to gather and refine material for the development of a questionnaire, followed by conducting a mass survey on a similar topic. The research method used was a structured interview. Israelis from various age, professional, and religious groups were interviewed, including individuals aged 25 to 65, economists, politicians, leaders of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), psychologists and political scientists, representatives of governmental structures, journalists, men, and women.

So, following the terrorist attack by the HAMAS organization, Benjamin Netanyahu declared that HAMAS would be completely destroyed. However, the reality of such a task is often called into question. Active discussions on the topic of “Israel after the war” have already begun, with efforts to determine possible future scenarios. Different political forces and geopolitical players perceive this future in various ways.

The interviewees were asked questions to understand what factors will influence the possibility of one or another scenario for the post-war future.

1. ‘In your opinion, what events could signify the onset of a ‘Palestine without HAMAS’ situation? We ask you to imagine possible scenarios of such a future, contemplating how it might unfold.’

 2. Often in the press, speeches of politicians, etc., the words “Gaza” and “Hamas” appear as synonyms (destroy Hamas/Gaza, Gaza/Hamas attack on Israel). To what extent and in what context is this justified, in your opinion? How do these concepts relate to each other? Should they be separated?

3. If the situation “Gaza without Hamas” were to occur, what consequences do you envision for Israel? What scenarios do you see for changes in the country’s internal political, social, and economic situation?

4. Can the neutralization or elimination of the organization “Hamas” affect a change in Israel’s borders? If yes, what scenarios of these changes do you consider realistic in your opinion?

5. Will Israel’s foreign policy situation and the geopolitical configuration of its relationships change in a situation “Without Hamas”? If yes, how and why?

6. How could the absence of the organization Hamas on the geopolitical stage impact the implementation of the Abraham Accords?

7. Is there, in your opinion, a connection between the presence/absence of the Hamas organization and the establishment of the Palestinian state? If yes, what is it? How could the disappearance of the influence of this organization affect the establishment of the Palestinian Authority?

8. In your opinion, is it possible for the Palestinian state to exist outside the borders established by UN Resolution 181? If yes, in what situation and under what conditions?

9. Is it possible to establish a Palestinian state in the temporary absence of a clear status for Jerusalem?