“Image of the future” of Israelis in the context of elections in important countries in 2024

Without an image of the future, it’s hard to achieve the right future. And in order to create that image, we need to understand what expectations Israelis have. What they expect from certain events that affect world politics. And, naturally, on the political reality inside Israel. What expectations do Israelis have for the US and Russian elections in 2024?

On September 27 in Tel Aviv, the NGO Dor Moriah, as part of the Haifa Formatproject, held a roundtable discussion. The purpose of the session is to discuss the results of the social survey “Israelis’ Expectation of the Results of the US Presidential Election in 2024”.

The Haifa Format project was launched in 2017. It was created as a negotiating platform to discuss problematic narratives for Israeli society.

Experts, rabbis, political scientists, and sociologists from the United States and Israel discussed the results of the study. The topic of a “Republican or Democrat” victory splits Israeli society, and this threat has also become a topic of discussion. Also discussed the likely threats to Israel’s security posed by some narratives.

On September 27, some of the results of 4 sociological studies conducted as part of the “Haifa Format” were presented. The research was conducted by the Maagar Mohot Sociological Center on behalf of Dor Moriah. The study was conducted from March through September 2023:

  • Israeli attitudes toward the armed conflict in Ukraine;
  • Israeli attitudes toward judicial reform;
  • Israeli attitudes toward the issue of Israel’s neutrality;
  • Israelis’ expectations of the US presidential election in 2024

High-profile topics that caused social confrontation and conflict among Israelis were selected for research. All these topics also influence the image of the future among Israelis and the Jewish state as a whole. Depending on which side of the public confrontation an Israeli chooses, his image of the future changes.

The first study dealt with Israeli attitudes toward the Ukrainian conflict. And this is where some interesting data was obtained. For example, on the Israelis’ main fear about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. About 60% see deteriorating relations with Russia as the main threat to Israel. 9% are afraid of spoiling relations with the USA, and 3% are afraid of spoiling relations with Ukraine.

The second issue splintering Israeli society for 9 months is judicial reform. A study of Israeli attitudes toward judicial reform, too, yielded interesting results. For example, only 4% of Israelis regularly participate in protests. And about 70% of Israelis who believe that the judicial system needs change and reform.

The third study focused on the topic of Israel’s neutrality as an instrument in international politics. The experts assumed that the majority of Israelis prefer Israel’s neutrality in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. So it was interesting to see how far the topic of neutrality could be applied to other international conflicts.

In sum, 78% of Israelis believe that Israel should be a neutral country regarding military conflicts. Conflicts occurring in other countries and can be neutral depending on the conflict.

54% believe that the state of Israel should remain neutral in international conflicts. To maintain its relations with other countries and to pursue independent policies.

42% of those polled believe that Israel refuses to supply weapons to countries in military conflict. This is done for the purpose of neutrality.

A divided society and the complex relationship of the Israeli government with the current (from the Democrat Party) administration of the U.S. President. This situation suggested that the topic of the U.S. presidential election could become another conflict narrative. In addition to judicial reform, the relation of religion and state, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

And this hypothesis was confirmed. The study showed that Israeli society is just as divided in expecting a Republican or Democrat victory:

  • The difference in expectations from the U.S. presidential election is another rift in Israeli society. Along with the significant contradictions in Israeli attitudes toward judicial reform that we identified earlier. This difference may be due to, among other things, the months-long protests around judicial reform. U.S. Democrats actively supported the protests and opposition.
  • Secular and Arabic-speaking Israelis favor a Democratic victory (43-45% vs. 18-29% to varying degrees of religious Jews). Religious Jews favor a Republican victory (33-50% vs. 8-24% among Arabs and secular Israelis). There are similar differences among Israelis with different political preferences. The right and center-right expect Republicans to win(39-40% vs. 21-29% who expect Democrats to win).
  • Respondents see the positive effect of a Republican victory in the areas of “independence of Israel’s foreign policy. There is some consensus on the area of national security. Respondents prefer the Republican candidate to win the U.S. election.

There was another important topic of discussion among the roundtable participants. As part of the regular Haifa Format meeting, the process of registering the Lobby in the Knesset was discussed. Lobby in favor of Israel’s Neutrality in international conflicts. A number of Knesset deputies, having studied the results of the sociological research conducted, expressed their willingness to launch the registration of the Lobby. In turn, experts have commented on Israel’s Neutrality. Neutrality is seen as an instrument of international influence in safeguarding the state interests of the Jewish state.

Conflicts in the post-Soviet space (Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, etc.). Conflicts in the Middle East and Far East Asia region. These examples point to the desirability of actively utilizing the instrument of Neutrality for Israel’s benefit. The prospect of a grand US-brokered treaty with Saudi Arabia. The Long-Term Perspective of the Treaty with Iran Mediated by Russia. All of these threats and opportunities make Israel the hub of peace in the region. Middle Eastern Switzerland, a financial and logistical center.

The Torah’s many thousands of years of wisdom and its spiritual and moral authority!!!! This allows Israel, using the instrument of Neutrality, to play the role of conflict mediator, the role of peacemaker. Such an Israeli stance can do much more for the Jewish state on the international stage.