A gentle calf sucks two cows (Ukrainian proverb)
In July 2023, the public organization “Dor Moria” conducted a mass Israelis survey. The survey goal was to understand what Israelis think about whether Israel can become the “Middle Eastern Switzerland” by maintaining neutrality and working with both sides of the geopolitical confrontation: the Collective West and the Global South.
According to surveys conducted by the NGO “Dor Moria”, a significant portion of Israeli society supports the idea of the country’s neutrality in international conflicts. 28% of respondents believe that Israel should adhere to neutrality, and among immigrants from the former USSR, this share reaches 36%. Another 50% believe that Israel’s position should depend on the specifics of the conflict.
Regarding Israel’s readiness for a peaceful course in foreign policy, opinions are divided: 20% consider the country fully ready to implement such a course, 35% partially ready, and 27% not ready. The calculated “readiness coefficient” is 10 units, indicating a moderately positive attitude of society towards a peaceful course.
At the same time, the absolute majority of respondents (54%) believe that Israel should maintain neutrality in international conflicts to sustain relationships with other countries and conduct an independent policy. This data indicates a demand from a significant part of Israeli society for a balanced and pragmatic approach to foreign policy, taking into account the country’s complex geopolitical situation.
This survey was conducted before the war on October 7. Now, in June 2024, considering the geopolitical forces at play, “Dor Moria” is launching another survey. We want to study Israelis’ opinions on whether Israel can, without disrupting its partnership with the United States, strengthen its movement towards the Global South and join, for example, BRICS.
Most of Israel’s neighboring countries, such as Egypt, UAE, or Saudi Arabia, have established relations with the USA. At the same time, they are part of BRICS and use the economic and geopolitical opportunities provided by the rapid economic and demographic development of the Global South.
Introduction or the lame ducks of the G-7
It is symbolic that in June 2024, two events are happening almost simultaneously: one gathering the leaders of the Collective West countries – the G-7 summit, and the other – the BRICS Games in Kazan (Russia). The American publication Politico commented on the meeting of the Collective West elite – the G7 summit, which began in Italy. According to the newspaper, “six lame ducks and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attended it. Except for Italian Prime Minister Meloni, all other leaders at the summit are quite weak. Biden is unlikely to win the upcoming elections, Scholz’s and Macron’s positions have been significantly weakened by the European Parliament elections, Sunak is a ‘walking dead,’ and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida has ‘serious problems at home.”
The BRICS Games 2024, held from June 12 to 23 in Kazan, gathered teams from the UK, Germany, France, the USA, Japan, and Israel. Notably, alongside Israel, Palestine is also among the 90 participating countries. These games became an alternative to the Olympic Games, which the Collective West views as a tool of political dominance.
In the modern world, there is growing confrontation between two global forces – the Collective West and the Global South.
The Collective West includes the developed countries of North America and Europe. The Global South consists of developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The countries of the Global South strive to increase their influence in international affairs and reform the world order of “Pax Americana”.
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The Collective West vs. the Global South
In 2024, more than 40 countries expressed their desire to join the BRICS alliance. These countries mainly represent regions of Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
This news is a month old. The list of countries that have declared their desire to join BRICS in the last 30 days includes Bolivia, Cameroon, Cuba, Syria, Zimbabwe, Turkey, and Thailand.
The main goal of BRICS expansion is to reduce dependence on the US dollar and strengthen the positions of local currencies for international trade. Developing countries see this alliance as an opportunity to strengthen their economies and weaken the influence of Western financial institutions. In 2023, the GDP of the Global South grew by 4.3%, and forecasts for 2024 and 2025 show growth of 4.2%, while the Collective West showed a GDP growth of 1.9% in 2023, with a forecast for 2024 and 2025 at the level of 1.7-1.8%. The share of the Global South in world GDP in 2023 was 37.2%, and by 2050, it is expected to grow to 50%, while the share of the Collective West was 25.8%, and a decline to 20% is expected. The population of the Global South in 2023 was 7.8 billion people, with a forecast of 10.9 billion by 2050, while the population of the Collective West remains stable at 1.2 billion people
At the same time, the global dollar system leads to the “countries of the Global South losing 2-3% of their GDP annually due to the dominance of the dollar in global reserve currencies, while the rich gain 1-2% of GDP. This is about 1.5 trillion dollars that the countries of the Global South ‘transfer’ to Western countries annually through the system of reserve assets and currencies. These 1.5 trillion dollars could be spent by poor countries on their development: economic incentives, healthcare, science, education. Within the framework of financial leveling through the mechanism of international financial organizations (IMF, World Bank, EBRD, EIB, etc.), wealthy countries allocate to the poor in the form of loans no more than 100 billion dollars a year, which is at least ten times less than they receive.
Public opinion and internal splits in Israel
Israel, located at the junction of Asia and Africa, found itself in the epicenter of the confrontation between the Collective West and the Global South. The NGO “Dor Moria” has been studying public opinion and internal splits in Israel for several years. Studies conducted by the NGO “Dor Moria” in 2023-2024 confirmed that splits in Israeli society are a serious obstacle to domestic political consensus.
Here are a few examples:
- Surveys show a lack of consensus regarding Israel’s future after the end of the war with Hamas: 28% support the model of “Two states for two peoples,” 25% support the annexation of the West Bank/territories of Judea and Samaria, as well as the Gaza Strip, and 25% were undecided.
- There are splits based on age: 50% of the population aged 65+ support the model of “Two states for two peoples,” while among those aged 18-39, only 15% support it, with 32% of the latter preferring annexation.
- The split between secular Jews and Arabs (40% for the model of “Two states for two peoples”) on one side and religious Jews (4-5% for this model, more than 50% for annexation) on the other.
- Differences regarding responsibility for the restoration of the Gaza Strip after the elimination of Hamas: 24% claim that the UN, 25% – the USA and the EU, 26% – Arab countries and Gulf states.
Besides this, significant differences in positions are related to political ideology, education level, and region of residence.
In the face of the confrontation between the Collective West and the Global South, Israel faces the necessity to adapt to the changing global landscape and find a new balance in its foreign policy. This situation is exacerbated by deep internal splits in Israeli society, which complicate the formation of a unified strategy.
Threats to Israel between the West and the South
In the context of tectonic shifts in the global balance of power, Israel finds itself at a crossroads. The traditional alliance with the Collective West on one side and the growing influence of the Global South on the other pose a difficult dilemma for the Jewish state. The ability to find its place in the new geopolitical configuration will largely determine its ability to ensure its long-term prosperity and security. Despite strong historical ties with the West, especially with the USA, there has been a certain cooling of relations between them recently. US Democrats and the Biden Administration have repeatedly expressed their desire to oust the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his drive to ensure sovereign and independent policies.
put the unquestionable orientation towards the West in doubt. The USA also demonstrate deep splits, including growing polarization between the Democratic and Republican parties, the strengthening of right-wing movements, and ongoing debates on key issues such as immigration, economic policy, and social justice.
In this context, Ukraine’s example serves as a warning of the dangers of over-dependence on a single power center. Kiev, betting on unconditional integration with the West and breaking traditional ties with Russia, found itself in the epicenter of a geopolitical confrontation that cost the country enormous human and economic losses. According to the World Bank, the conflict in Donbas cost Ukraine up to 20% of its economic potential, and its GDP per capita remains one of the lowest in Europe.
This bitter lesson shows that in today’s multipolar world, betting on unilateral alliances and ignoring the interests of neighbors can have catastrophic consequences. For Israel, located in no less complex geopolitical surroundings, it is vital to avoid such miscalculations and build a balanced, multi-vector foreign policy considering the changing global context.
Israel in BRICS
Economic and demographic trends indicate a shift in global economics and politics towards the Global South, which inevitably leads to a change in the global balance of power. Israel’s entry into BRICS could not only expand Israel’s economic opportunities, but also create more favorable conditions for resolving long-standing regional conflicts.
This block has already become an influential force of global significance. The BRICS countries account for more than 40% of the world’s population and about 30% of global GDP. Joining this association would allow Israel to diversify its economic and political ties, using Western markets and sources of financing to implement projects with the BRICS countries.
Israel is already taking active steps towards rapprochement with BRICS. Israeli delegations have repeatedly participated in forums and summits of the BRICS countries, discussing the possibilities of economic and technological cooperation.
China, one of the leading members of BRICS, is an important trading partner of Israel, and bilateral relations continue to strengthen. Israel is also actively developing ties with India, which views it as a strategic partner in the fields of defense, agriculture and technology. Russia, another key member of BRICS, has long historical and cultural ties with Israel, which creates additional opportunities for cooperation.
Israel has a historic opportunity to become an east-west and north-south transport hub. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) was officially agreed upon on September 12, 2000, with the agreement signed by Russia, India and Iran. This route improves transport links between Russia and the Gulf countries, reducing the time and costs of transporting goods between Europe and Southeast Asia. In October 2021, the India-Arab Economic Summit agreed to create a transport corridor from India to Europe via Israel to improve economic integration and logistics.
The prospects of joining BRICS will help Israel diversify its foreign policy and economic ties, which is especially important in the context of growing polarization of the world community.
The Palestinian Question or the “White Man’s Burden”
Israel’s experience in the “peace process” shows that within the existing paradigm of relations with the West, achieving lasting peace and resolving the Palestinian problem remain elusive. Despite numerous attempts at peace negotiations and international mediation, the conflict remains unresolved, causing tension and instability in the region.
Israel, as an outpost of the Collective West, carried the “white man’s burden” to the territory of the Global South. This “burden” is the basic narrative of the Collective West in relation to the Global South, and it is what justified the suppression and oppression of other peoples under the guise of “enlightenment” and “development”. Israel’s movement towards the Global South is a way of searching for new approaches and formats for settlement that go beyond traditional Western-centric models.
Key players in the Global South, such as China and India, have long-standing ties to the Palestinians and enjoy significant prestige in the Arab-Muslim world. At the same time, they are interested in developing relations with Israel as an important economic and technological partner. This creates a unique opportunity to build a new regional security architecture, where the interests of all parties, including the Palestinians, Israel and Arab states, could be balanced. The potential for expanding interfaith Judeo-Islamic dialogue should also be taken into account. A dialogue that existed for centuries and was broken in the 19th and 20th centuries.
The Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with a number of Arab countries, have already demonstrated the potential of such an approach. They showed that pragmatic cooperation based on common interests can bring dividends to all participants and contribute to a healthier regional atmosphere. The development of this process in conjunction with a more active involvement of Israel in the structures of the Global South could create qualitatively new opportunities for progress in the Palestinian direction.
Of course, there are many obstacles and challenges along this path. Unsettled territorial disputes, the problem of Jewish settlements, the question of the status of Jerusalem, the threat of terrorism – all these factors will complicate the search for a compromise. It will take wisdom, political will and a willingness to make painful concessions on all sides to unravel this complex knot of contradictions.
But it is a fundamental change in the geopolitical context, the integration of Israel into both the Collective West and the Global South, that can create the momentum that has been so lacking in previous decades. With the support and mediation efforts of new developing country partners, Israel and the Palestinians have a chance to move towards each other, gradually building relations on a new, healthier and more pragmatic basis.
Epilogue or on the way to a new regional order
Israel’s strategic reorientation toward the Global South, with strong public support, could be an important step toward strengthening its position on the world stage and creating a more stable and prosperous future for all its citizens. Ultimately, a solution to the Palestinian problem is possible only by building an inclusive and fair regional order that takes into account the interests and aspirations of all regional players. Israel’s move towards the Global South, symbolized by joining BRICS, represents an important step in this direction.
Israel can become an example of a policy that ensures a just and sustainable regional order. This is the only way to ensure long-term security and prosperity for all citizens of the country in a rapidly changing global reality.